Repronews #23: Pro-family policies up, fertility rates down
Current & future PGT applications; PGT ethics; Sophia DAO; He Jenkui is back; global IVF market to almost double by 2033; “600 million Russian”; NYT on family-friendly South Tyrol
Welcome to the latest issue of Repronews! Highlights from this week’s edition:
Repro/genetics
Current and emerging applications of preimplantation genetic testing (PGT)
Mapping ethical, legal, and social implications (ELSI) of PGT
Launch of Sophia DAO: a decentralized autonomous organization committed to accelerating human cognitive enhancement
He Jenkui—the Chinese scientist who was jailed for creating gene-edited babies—is back in the research lab
Global IVF market to almost double to $45.57 billion by 2033
Population Policies & Trends
The Financial Times reports, with numerous statistics and charts, on the rise of family-friendly policies and the fall of birth rates in the developed world
The Russian Orthodox Church calls for reaching “600 million” Russians through natalist policies and “traditional large families”
The New York Times reports on comparatively successful family-friendly policies in the Italian province of South Tyrol
Genetic Studies
Further Learning
Repro/genetics
“Advancements and applications of preimplantation genetic testing in IVF: A comprehensive review” (Cureus)
This comprehensive review explores the advancements and applications of preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) in IVF, covering its various types, technological developments, clinical applications, efficacy, challenges, regulatory aspects, and future directions.
The evolution of PGT techniques, including next-generation sequencing (NGS), has significantly enhanced the accuracy and reliability of genetic testing in embryos.
PGT has profound implications for the future of assisted reproduction by improving IVF success rates, reducing the incidence of genetic disorders, and mitigating the emotional and financial burdens associated with failed pregnancies and genetic diseases.
As PGT continues to expand, potentially encompassing the selection of desirable traits in embryos, establishing clear ethical guidelines and regulations will be imperative.
Future directions and innovations in PGT include advancements in non-invasive testing techniques, integrating AI into PGT analysis, potential use of CRISPR gene editing, and personalized medicine to enhance embryo selection.
Personalized medicine would mean tailoring genetic testing to individual patients’ needs and genetic profiles. This customized approach could optimize the selection of healthy embryos for transfer.
Using CRISPR holds immense potential in correcting genetic disorders within embryos. This innovative technology provides a precise and efficient means of editing the DNA of embryos before implantation, offering a proactive approach to preventing the transmission of genetic disorders.
The authors recommend clinicians, researchers, and policymakers stay updated on the latest PGT techniques and guidelines, explore innovative technologies, establish clear regulatory frameworks, and foster collaboration to maximize the potential benefits of PGT in assisted reproduction.
“Mapping ethical, legal, and social implications (ELSI) of preimplantation genetic testing (PGT)” (JARG)
This review examined 506 articles on the Ethical, Legal, and Social Implications (ELSI) of PGT.
There was a tenfold increase in global research output on PGT’s ELSI from 1999 to 2019, signifying rising interest and concern.
Despite heightened theoretical discourse on selecting “optimal” offspring, such practices were scarcely reported in clinical environments.
Issues such as PGT funding and familial impacts remain underexplored.
86% of the ELSI literature originates from just 12 (Western) countries.
The authors conclude ELSI research needs to align more closely with clinical practice, promoting collaborations among ethicists, clinicians, policymakers, and economists so as to be practically relevant.
Launch of Sophia DAO
Russian transhumanist Anatoly Karlin has founded Sophia DAO.
DAO stands for decentralized autonomous organization. DAOs are characterized by bottom-up decision-making and are popular among cryptocurrency and blockchain communities.
Sophia DAO is dedicated to accelerating human intelligence by:
Funding fundamental research and investing in public goods such as open biobanks.
Connecting crypto investors with people working on human intelligence enhancement, including genetic enhancement.
Promoting “nooceleration” (acceleration of human intelligence enhancement) and reprogenetics tech in blogs and media.
Studies suggest intelligence is the single strongest predictor of both individual life success and national wellbeing.
Karlin provides a full account of the importance of intelligence and the ethical imperative of nooceleration in a blog post entitled “The Biosingularity is Near.”
Interview with He Jenkui, Chinese scientist jailed for CRISPR babies, has returned to genome-editing research (Mainichi Shinbun)
Japanese national newspaper Mainichi Shinbun interviewed He Jenkui, a Chinese scientist who announced the birth of the world's first genome-edited babies in 2018. He was subsequently jailed in China but was released in April 2022.
He said he now aims to treat rare genetic diseases such as Duchenne muscular dystrophy and familial Alzheimer’s disease.
After his release, He reportedly established three laboratories in China, including in Beijing and Wuhan, and resumed his research. “We will use discarded human embryos and comply with both domestic and international rules,” He explained, denying any current intent to produce more genome-edited babies.
Regarding the three gene-edited children, He said: “They are perfectly healthy and have no problems with their growth.” The twin girls, now aged at least 5, are reportedly both attending kindergarten.
He added: “The results of analyzing [the children’s] entire gene sequences show that there were no modifications to the genes other than for the medical objective, providing evidence that genome editing was safe. I’m proud to have helped families who wanted healthy children.”
On the criticism his research received from around the world at the time, he said: “I regret that it was too hasty.”
Global IVF market to almost double to $45.6 billion by 2033 (Biospace)
Vision Research Reports estimates the global IVF market at $25.34 billion in 2023, forecast to grow 5.57% per year to 2033, reaching $45.57 billion.
IVF market growth is driven by rising infertility rates, advancements in IVF techniques, continuous improvements in IVF success rates, and increasing demand for preimplantation genetic testing.
More on repro/genetics:
“Reimagining human ARTs: from revolutions to evolution” (JARG)
Population Policies & Trends
“Why family-friendly policies don’t boost birth rates” (Financial Times)
Between 1980 and 2019, the world’s developed countries roughly tripled per capita spending on child benefits, subsidized childcare, parental leave and other family-friendly policies. Their birth rates declined from 1.85 to 1.53 per woman.
In egalitarian Finland, home to some of the most family-friendly policies in the world, the fertility rate has fallen by a third since 2010.
In Hungary, famous for its payouts aimed at boosting the nation’s number of babies, fewer children were born last year than at any time since records began.
In Korea, the government’s “baby bonus” program was found to have mainly paid out to women who were already planning on having children.
The FT attributes falling fertility to a number of factors, including the rise of “helicopter parenting,” extreme investment in education to increase children’s chances of achieving a higher socioeconomic status, shifting priorities of young adults, anxiety among young adults, and the decline in young adult couples.
In 1965, mothers of young children in developed countries spent an average of just over an hour a day doing activities with their kids. By 2018 that had risen to three hours (approaching four hours in South Korea). South Korea’s fertility rate has plummeted to 0.72, while in France, where parenting is much less hands-on, birth rates have held up well and now stand at 1.8.
In 1993, 61% of Americans said having children was important for a fulfilling life, but Pew Research now puts the figure at 26%. Research by demographic economist Lyman Stone suggests the priorities most eroding birth rates among young women are the desires to grow as a person and to focus on their career.
Two pieces of further research from Stone show that the more worried a prospective young mother is, the fewer children she intends to have. Under-30s in the West and east Asia are more anxious and stressed than their elders.
Social scientist Alice Evans writes that with women increasingly able to support themselves financially, one traditional reason for partnering up has been eroded. The most recent part of the downward trend in births has been driven not by people deciding to have two children instead of three, but by a rise in the share deciding not to have any at all.
The FT concludes that if there is ever a return to replacement-level fertility, this will be due to broad social and cultural shifts, not policy.
Orthodox Church calls for reaching “600 million” Russians through natalist policies and “traditional large families” (Moscow Patriarchate)
The Russian Orthodox Church held its 25th Congress of the “Russian World” in Moscow. The Congress adopted a text on “the Present and Future of the Russian World” which included provisions on family policy and demography.
The document considers ongoing “demographic catastrophe” to be the “main threat to the existence and development of Russia.” It argues that “[t]o survive in the twenty-first century, preserve sovereignty, and its own civilizational identity, Russia needs sustainable, and most importantly, intensive natural population growth. Solving this problem is impossible without reviving the traditional large family in Russia, as well as traditional family values.”
The text asserts that “[t]he family and ensuring its well-being must be recognized as the main national development goal, as well as a strategic national priority of the Russian Federation.”
Specific measures proposed include:
The introduction of partial or complete write-off of mortgage debt depending on the birth of another child in the family (for example, after the birth of the third child, 50% of the debt is written off, of the fourth 75%, after the birth of the fifth the mortgage debt is repaid in full).
Encouraging employers to hire parents with many children, especially fathers with many children.
Setting a long-term strategic goal of reaching 600 million Russians through “sustainable demographic growth.”
Promotion of large families in Russian mass media and schooling. Opposition to pro-abortion and pro-LGBT “propaganda.”
Criminalization of inducement to abortion “in the absence of medical or social indications.”
The development of pronatalist policies by testing pilot projects in different territories. Successful practices would be scaled up throughout Russia.
“What happened when this Italian province invested in babies” (New York Times)
The New York Times reports on comparatively successful natalist policies in South Tyrol, a majority Germany-speaking northern province of Italy.
With among the lowest birthrates in Europe, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Pope Francis have warned Italians are in danger of disappearing.
South Tyrol has emerged as “a parallel procreation universe for Italy” with a steady birthrate. The provincial government developing a thick network of family-friendly benefits, going far beyond the national one-off bonuses for babies.
Parents enjoy discounted nursery schools, baby products, groceries, health care, energy bills, transportation, after-school activities, and summer camps. Provincial childcare programs include one that certifies educators to turn their apartments into small nurseries.
“If we don’t invest money in families, there is no future for any of us,” said Waltraud Deeg, a former provincial council member. “The family is a long-term project, so policies need to be long term, too.”
“The difference is that it has a constant investment, over the years, unlike most national policies that are one-offs,” said Agnese Vitali, a demographer at the University of Trento. “Nobody plans to have children based on one-off policies.”
Families with three or more children can have a Family+ card, entitling them to 20% off many supplies. There are also savings for public transportation.
When the family-friendly subsidies started in the 1980s, the province also imported the idea of the Tagesmutter, or childminder, day-care system from East Germany. Italians call it Casa Bimbo. Under the system, the province certifies, registers, and supports local teachers who turn their homes into nurseries. It is especially popular in rural areas.
“They bet on a network of widespread micronurseries,” said Mariangela Franch, an economics professor at the University of Trento.
The province’s attitude toward family benefits is rooted in the desire of a minority culture to keep alive a strong identity by encouraging people to have more children. Trentino, the neighboring majority Italian-speaking region, has also invested heavily in childcare but its birthrate has plunged to 1.36 children.
“The local culture also plays an important role,” said Alessandro Rosina, a prominent Italian demographer. “And that is hard to export.”
The NYT does not mention South Tyrol’s fertility rate. In 2019, this was 1.71 per woman, as against 1.27 nationally. South Tyrol also has the highest income per resident in Italy.
More on population policies and trends:
“Why aren’t British women having babies anymore?” (Sunday Times)
“Culture, policy, and birth rates: A follow-up” (Ruxandra Teslo)
Genetic Studies
Heritability of child-onset type 1 diabetes higher than adult-onset (Karolinska Institute)
“‘Race’, anti-racism and biology” (Genetic Literacy Project)
Further Learning
“A remembrance of Frans de Waal” (John Hawks)
AI can predict sexual orientation based on 5-minute brain scan with 83% accuracy (Psychology Today)
Disclaimer: The Genetic Choice Project cannot fact-check the linked-to stories and studies, nor do the views expressed necessarily reflect our own.