Repronews #30: Demography in American political thought
Repronews #30: Demography in American political thought
Gene-editing dialogues; a case for genome sequencing; falling US fertility; genetics of right-wing authoritarianism & blood pressure; South Asians & diabetes; human evolution; Lea's "A Part-time Job"
Welcome to the latest issue of Repronews! Highlights from this week’s edition:
Repro/genetics
How to make public dialogues on human germline gene editing successful
Video: Orchid Health’s case for whole-genome sequencing
Population Policies & Trends
Craig Willy (yours truly) in Palladium Magazine on demography in American political thought and its importance underpinning the growth of U.S. power
Remote work’s mini baby boom ends: U.S. fertility rate hits record low in 2023
Genetic Studies
Norwegian study suggests right-wing authoritarianism has a genetic foundation
Researchers analyze genome of ancient Chinese Emperor Wu of Northern Zhou
Study identifies 103 new genomic regions associated with high blood pressure and shows polygenic risk scores can successfully predict huge differences in chance of developing hypertension
Genetic variant in South Asians undermines diabetes test accuracy
Further Learning
Study suggests ancient human evolution driven by inter-species competition and extreme speciation
Luke Lea’s A Part-time Job in the Country
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Repro/genetics
“The need to set explicit goals for human germline gene editing public dialogues” (Journal of Community Genetics)
Given the potentially large ethical and societal implications of human germline gene editing (HGGE), there is an urgent need for public and stakeholder engagement. However, the goals of such efforts often remain poorly defined.
The article presents the goals defined by the Dutch project “De DNA dialogen” (The DNA dialogues). The authors argue that setting explicit goals in advance is essential to enable and evaluate meaningful public and stakeholder engagement.
The project suggests the following four goals:
1) Enable publics and stakeholders to deliberate on “what if” questions, before considering “whether” and “how” questions regarding HGGE.
2) Investigate agreement and disagreement in values and beliefs regarding HGGE in order to agree and disagree more precisely.
3) Involve diverse publics with various perspectives, with a focus on those that are typically underrepresented in public and stakeholder engagement.
4) Enable societally-aligned policymaking by providing policymakers, healthcare professionals, and legal experts insight into how values are weighed and ascribed meaning in the context of HGGE by various publics, and how these values relate to the principles of democratic rule of law and fundamental rights.
Is whole genome screening relevant for everyone? (Orchid Health)
Orchid Health has released a video explaining why whole-genome sequencing of embryos may be relevant to everyone having a child with IVF, and not only people with a family history of disease.
Genetic mutations may occur in an embryo which are not present in either parent’s genome. The likelihood of these de novo mutations increases with age.
By covering 99% of the genome, whole-genome sequencing can detect more disease-causing genetic variants than can traditional monogenic testing which target for a few specific diseases.
More on repro/genetics:
“Ethnic disparities in gamete donors must be tackled” (PET)
Jon Rueda, “Value change, reprogenetic technologies, and the axiological underpinnings of reproductive choice” (Bioethics)
“Impact of preimplantation genetic diagnosis for chromosomal disorders on reproductive outcome” (Reproductive BioMedicine Online)
Population Policies & Trends
Craig Willy, “The demographic roots of American power” (Palladium)
This article explores demography in American political thought and how demographic dynamism has underpinned the United States’ rise as a global superpower.
Early American statesmen such as Benjamin Franklin, John Jay, Alexander Hamilton, and Thomas Jefferson were keenly aware of the importance of demographic size and/or human capital to national power.
Sub-replacement fertility has spread throughout the Global North, including, albeit recently, the United States. East Asia in particular is marked by ultra-low fertility. Future power dynamics will be strongly affected by different nations’ birth rates and ability to attract talent through brain-drain.
More and more nations are enabling access to reproductive technologies in order to boost birth rates. Israel is the pioneer in this area. With its strong reprotech sector, the United States has significant scope to boost its birth rate via broader uptake of IVF, a move which could also decrease the burden of genetic diseases.
“Remote work’s mini baby boom ended: U.S. fertility rate hits record low in 2023” (population.fyi)
According to a new report from the National Center for Health Statistics, the U.S. total fertility rate hit a record low of 1.62 births per woman in 2023.
This decline is occurring in the context of shifting labor market trends, including a decline in remote work and employee benefits.
The total number of births in 2023 was 3.59 million, a 2% drop from 2022 and the lowest number since 1979.
The drop below replacement fertility rate first occurred in the U.S. around 1971 and has been consistently below for the last 15 years.
The highest birth rate was among women ages 30 to 34, while women 40 and older saw a modest increase in their birth rate.
The teenage birthrate hit a record low of 13.2 per 1,000 females, a 68% drop since 2007 and 79% since the peak in 1991.
The general fertility rate decreased by 3% among women aged 15 to 44, with declines across most racial and ethnic groups.
Nearly one-third of all babies were born by cesarean delivery. Just over 1 in 10 babies born in 2023 were preterm.
Genetic Studies
Norwegian study suggests right-wing authoritarianism has a genetic foundation (PsyPost)
New research published in the Journal of Personality. suggests political leanings are influenced by our genetic makeup, specifically with regard to two core ideological traits: right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation.
Right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation are two psychological constructs that have been extensively studied in the context of political attitudes and behaviors.
Right-wing authoritarianism is characterized by three broad attitudes: submission to authorities perceived as established and legitimate, aggression toward individuals or groups that are seen as deviant or dissenting from perceived societal norms, and adherence to conventional norms and values of the society.
People high in right-wing authoritarianism tend to value order, tradition, and national unity, with strong support for authorities that enforce these principles.
Social dominance orientation, on the other hand, reflects an individual’s preference for inequality among social groups.
Previous research has established that both right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation are powerful predictors of political attitudes and behaviors, independently of the Big Five personality traits (openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism).
Researchers from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and the University of Oslo analyzed data collected from a sample of 1,987 twins registered in the Norwegian Twin Registry, encompassing individuals born between 1945 and 1960.
The study relied on a classical twin design, which compares the similarities between monozygotic twins, who share virtually all their genes, and dizygotic twins, who share about half of their segregating genes. This approach allowed the researchers to distinguish genetic influences from environmental factors.
The participants completed measures of the Big Five personality traits , right-wing authoritarianism, and social dominance orientation. Policy attitudes were also gauged on issues such as attitudes towards deporting Roma (Gypsies), reducing aid for developing countries, accepting more asylum seekers, and implementing strict immigration control.
The researchers found that the covariation between ideological traits and policy attitudes related to national resources and immigration was predominantly explained by genetic factors.
By contrast, the Big Five personality traits, while influential in shaping individuals’ general attitudes and behaviors, have a comparatively lesser genetic correlation with specific policy attitudes. This indicates that the Big Five might play a more indirect role in political ideology, perhaps by influencing broader worldview or cognitive style, rather than specific political beliefs.
The study also highlighted a significant genetic correlation between right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation themselves, suggesting a common genetic architecture partially underlies these traits.
Another notable result is the lack of significant shared environmental effects for most traits, including social dominance orientation and the Big Five personality traits, suggesting that shared family environment and upbringing do not play a major role in developing these ideological orientations.
A modest shared environmental effect was observed for right-wing authoritarianism, indicating that some aspects of authoritarian attitudes might be influenced by environmental factors common to twins, such as family values or cultural context.
“Our results suggest that the two core ideological traits of [right-wing authoritarianism] and [social dominance orientation] have a much higher (genetic and phenotypic) covariation with political policy attitudes than do Big Five personality traits,” the researchers concluded.
“The covariation of such ideological traits with policy attitudes is best explained by genetic overlap as opposed to common socialization. These findings challenge key influential theories in social and political psychology and suggest instead that hierarchy-related traits are not simply epiphenomena or downstream consequences of standard personality traits, but instead might form a dedicated and heritable package for navigating intergroup struggles over territory and resources.”
The study’s data was drawn from middle-aged Norwegian adults and therefore may not represent the global diversity in political attitudes. Future research could expand on these findings by exploring other populations.
“Ancient genome of the Chinese Emperor Wu of Northern Zhou” (Current Biology)
This study analyzed the genome of Emperor Wu (武帝, 543–578 CE) of the Xianbei-led Northern Zhou dynasty, a highly influential leader who reformed the system of regional troops, pacified the Turks, and unified the northern part of the country. The Xianbei were a nomadic group living in what is now Mongolia.
By analyzing pigmentation-relevant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and conducting cranial CT-based facial reconstruction, the researchers determined that Wu possessed a typical East or Northeast Asian appearance.
“Some scholars said the Xianbei had ‘exotic’ looks, such as thick beard, high nose bridge, and yellow hair,” said Dr. Shaoqing Wen, a researcher at Fudan University. The study shows Wu had brown eyes, black hair, and dark to intermediate skin.
Pathogenic SNPs suggest Wu faced an increased susceptibility to certain diseases, such as stroke.
Wu derived 61% of his ancestry from ancient Northeast Asians (ANAs) and nearly one-third from Yellow River (YR) farmer-related groups. This can likely be attributed to continuous intermarriage between Xianbei royal families and local Han aristocrats.
The study revealed genetic diversities among available ancient Xianbei individuals from different regions, suggesting that the formation of the Xianbei was a dynamic process influenced by admixture with surrounding populations.
Study identifies 103 new genomic regions associated with high blood pressure (PET)
Blood pressure regulation and risk of hypertension (high blood pressure) are influenced by over 2000 genomic regions.
A study in Nature Genetics uncovered 2103 genomic regions, also known as genomic loci, associated with blood pressure, of which 113 are new.
The study, which included data from over one million people, is one of the largest genomic studies of blood pressure.
The scientists confirmed the identification of 38 genes with potential as drug targets, including five genes already targeted by other approved drugs.
“Our study helps explain a much larger proportion of the differences between two people’s blood pressure than was previously known,” said Dr. Jacob Keaton. “Our study found additional genomic locations that together explain a much larger part of the genetic differences in people's blood pressure.”
Hypertension can be caused by diet, lifestyle, or medical conditions—such as kidney disease or diabetes—but it can also be inherited. It is estimated that 30% of adults in the UK have hypertension.
The scientists observed that the 10% of people with the highest polygenic risk scores for hypertension hada more than seven-fold increased risk of developing hypertension compared to the 10% of people with the lowest risk scores.
“There are many different potential applications of genetic risk scores, so it will be exciting to see how our blood pressure scores can be used to address more clinically relevant questions in the future,” said Dr. Helen Warren.
Most genomic studies are conducted in people of European ancestry, as is the case for this study, which means that the polygenic risk scores may not be applicable to people of other ancestries.
The researchers tested the polygenic risk scores on 21,843 people of African-American ancestry, from the All-Of-Us research programme, and found that they were also applicable to this population.
“Knowing a person’s risk for developing hypertension could lead to tailored treatments, which are more likely to be effective,” said Dr. Keaton.
Genetic variant in South Asians undermines diabetes test accuracy (PET)
A genetic variant found predominantly in people with South Asian ancestry has been shown to affect the accuracy of a commonly-used type 2 diabetes test.
HbA1c tests indicate the average blood glucose levels over two to three months by measuring the amount of sugar attached to red blood cells and are one of the tests a doctor will use to decide if a person has diabetes or prediabetes.
According to research presented at the Diabetes UK Professional Conference, the genetic variant may lead to the HbA1c test to show misleadingly low results, potentially leading to missed diagnosis and treatment.
“Many genetic variants linked to red blood cell conditions are ultra-rare amongst the Northern Europeans who have historically dominated genetic studies,” said study leader Dr. Miriam Samuel. “We demonstrate one such variant that is carried by 7.6% of South Asians which could affect the accuracy of HbA1c and cause delays in diabetes diagnosis.”
The team analysed data from Genes and Health, which involves approximately 50,000 British Bangladeshi and Pakistani volunteers, and from the UK Biobank, including 500,000 individuals of varied ethnicity living in the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the genetic variant leads to changes in red blood cells, which affect the HbA1c test results. The researchers found that individuals carrying this variant were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes on average one to two years later than those without it.
“This evidence showing that the accuracy of a common test to diagnose and monitor type 2 diabetes is linked to a person’s ethnicity should be urgently investigated further,” Dr. Elizabeth Robertson, director of research at Diabetes UK. “It’s incredibly important that healthcare professionals are armed with a precise way to evaluate average blood sugar levels over extended periods. Without this, they are navigating in the dark and potentially at risk of overlooking cases of type 2% diabetes.”
People with Bangladeshi, Indian, and Pakistani ancestry represent 6.9% of the English and Welsh population.
“Studies such as Genes and Health, focusing on populations who are underserved in genetic research, are vital to understand the different pathways that may contribute to diabetes inequalities in these communities,” said Dr. Samuel.
More on genetic studies:
“Genes, stress, and depression: Depression is shaped in part by the environment, but the environment is shaped in part by genes” (Steve Stewart-Williams)
“The chromosomal characteristics of spontaneous abortion and its potential associated copy number variants and genes” (JARG)
Study of Japanese population suggests cancer heritability of 0.064, much lower than for previous studies on European populations (Clinical Genetics)
Further Learning
Study suggests ancient human evolution driven by inter-species competition and extreme speciation (Cosmos)
New research published in Nature Ecology & Evolution examines the rate at which new species of hominin emerged over 5 million years. This speciation in our lineage, they found, is unlike almost anything else.
“We have been ignoring the way competition between species has shaped our own evolutionary tree,” says lead author Dr. Laura van Holstein from the University of Cambridge. “The effect of climate on hominin species is only part of the story.”
In most vertebrates, species evolve to fill ecological niches. “The pattern we see across many early hominins is similar to all other mammals,” van Holstein says. “Speciation rates increase and then flatline, at which point extinction rates start to increase. This suggests that interspecies competition was a major evolutionary factor.”
Van Holstein describes Homo’s evolution as “bizarre.” “The more species of Homo there were, the higher the rate of speciation,” she said. “So, when those niches got filled, something drove even more species to emerge. This is almost unparalleled in evolutionary science.”
The closest comparison is in beetle species living on islands where contained ecosystems can produce unusual evolutionary trends. “The patterns of evolution we see across species of Homo that led directly to modern humans is closer to those of island-dwelling beetles than other primates, or even any other mammal,” van Holstein explains.
Van Holstein created a database of every hominin species to be found and dated so far, 385 records in total, and used a model to overcome incompleteness of the fossil record. This gave her new timelines of when species emerged and disappeared.
Several species thought to have evolved through anagenesis—when one species slowly turns into another—might actually have “budded,” meaning the new species branched off the existing one.
Early hominins may have evolved to expand their niche. For example, Paranthropus might have adapted their teeth to consume different foods. However, the pattern in Homo species suggests that technology played a far greater role in speciation, a form of gene-culture coevolution.
“Adoption of stone tools or fire, or intensive hunting techniques, are extremely flexible behaviours. A species that can harness them can quickly carve out new niches and doesn’t have to survive vast tracts of time while evolving new body plans,” van Holstein explains.
Luke Lea, A Part-time Job in the Country (Amazon Kindle)
Luke Lea’s A Part-time Job in the Country: Notes Toward a New Way of Life in America argues for increasing well-paid part-time job opportunities in rural areas. Affordable land and free time would enable families to build their own houses, grow gardens, cook, and care for their children and grand-children.
Such a socioeconomic structure would thus encourage family formation.
Lea argues Congress should pass protectionist legislation to encourage the development of rural factories providing part-type jobs.
More on human nature, evolution, and biotech:
Artificial intelligence
“Much as ChatGPT generates poetry, a new A.I. system devises blueprints for microscopic mechanisms that can edit your DNA” (New York Times)
Environment
“Human beings have transformed the Earth unlike any other species” (GLP/Big Think)
Health
Over 100 million children have been saved since 1990 thanks to improvement in global health (Our World in Data)
Vaccines have saved 150 million children over the last 50 years: Every 10 seconds, one child is saved by a vaccine (Our World in Data)
“Doctors can now edit the genes inside your body: It sounds like science fiction, but dozens of people have undergone gene editing for cardiovascular disease and other conditions” (Wall Street Journal)
Agriculture
“As Switzerland mulls ending ban on crop biotechnology, organic farmers and environmental NGOs intensify campaign against reform” (GLP)
“11 of 54 African countries grow genetically engineered crops” (GLP)
“Bill Gates: AI will allows us to genetically modify beef cows to fight climate change” (The Paradise)
Lab-grown meat: “The GOP is freaking out about an industry that doesn’t exist year” (Washington Post)
Security
“U.S. report: North Korea has capability to genetically engineer biological weapons” (KBS World)
Disclaimer: The Genetic Choice Project cannot fact-check the linked-to stories and studies, nor do the views expressed necessarily reflect our own.