Repronews #36: South Korea declares ultra-low fertility a “national emergency”

Republicans & IVF; AI & IVF in UAE; Utah fertility decline; diabetes heritability in black Americans; Neanderthal DNA & autism

South-Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol

Welcome to the latest issue of Repronews! Highlights from this week’s edition:

• Repro/genetics

  • Vanessa Brown Calder (Cato Institute): why Republicans should protect IVF to support natality, health, and reproductive freedom

  • How AI is being to improve IVF in the United Arab Emirates

• Population Policies & Trends

  • South-Korean President Yoon declared ultra-low fertility a “national emergency,” citing decline of Sparta

  • Fertility in majority-Mormon Utah is declining, mirroring national trends

• Genetic Studies

  • Type-2 diabetes estimated to be 18-34% heritable in African Americans

  • Certain Neanderthal genetic variants contribute to autism

• Further Learning

Repro/genetics

“Republican lawmakers should continue effort to protect in vitro fertilization” (Cato Institute)

• Vanessa Brown Calder of the libertarian Cato Institute argues that Republicans legislators should support protection of IVF.

• Last week, all 49 Senate Republicans signed a letter stating their “strong” support for continued nationwide to IVF.

• Republican Senators Ted Cruz and Katie Britt put forward legislation to discourage states from restricting IVF, which Senate Democrats blocked on the ground it does not go far enough.

• Calder argues protection of IVF is an invaluable pro-natal policy that expands reproductive freedom and enables forward-looking prevention of or preparation for health problems.

• Regulatory measures limiting the number of embryos created, banning preimplantation genetic testing, or reducing the number of eggs fertilized would hinder IVF’s efficacy and reduce the number of children born. As such, these are anti‐​natal policies.

“AI could improve IVF success rates, health experts ay” (The National, United Arab Emirates)

• Health professionals are increasingly using AI to tackle rising infertility.

• The World Health Organisation (WHO) has found that about 17.5% of adults, or one in six, are affected by infertility.

• Dr. Shiva Harikrishnan of Medcare Women and Children Hospital in Dubai said AI is helping clinicians craft personalised reproductive treatment strategies.

• “AI methods are being utilised to improve the selection and prediction of sperm cells, oocytes, and embryos and to generate better predictive models for IVF treatments,” Dr. Harikrishnan said

• A study published by the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology found that AI models can more accurately predict the likelihood of successful clinical pregnancies than can human specialists.

• Diagnio is a UAE company seeking to transform women’s health diagnostics into an easy, lab-accurate at-home experience. It uses saliva-based testing to track ovulation, identify fertility risks, reduce stress, and maximise the chances of conception.

  “If we don't embrace these technologies, within one or two generations, we will find ourselves in a position where only the wealthiest among us can start families,” said Sophie Smith of Nabta Health, a women’s health clinic in Dubai.

• Diagnio and Nabta Health are part of a growing FemTech sector focused on addressing women’s health issues

More on repro/genetics:

• “Concurrent preimplantation genetic testing and competence assessment of human embryos by transcriptome sequencing” (Advanced Science)

• “Navigating IVF politics: Insights from a fertility specialist” (Positive Step Fertility)

• “Liberal eugenics and preimplantation genetic diagnosis” (Bioethics Observatory)

Population Policies & Trends

South-Korean President Yoon declares “national emergency” on low birth rates, citing decline of Sparta (Chosun Daily)

• South-Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has declared a “demographic national emergency,” outlining a comprehensive strategy to combat the country’s ultra-low birth rates with a series of bold policy measures and initiatives.

• President Yoon said: “We will undertake nationwide, all-out efforts until we overcome the issue of low birth rates.”

• During a meeting of the Presidential Committee on Aging Society and Population Policy, Yoon said: “The most fundamental and fatal problem is the demographic crisis caused by ultra-low birth rates.”

• Yoon cited the example of the ancient city-state of Sparta, which, despite its primacy, rapidly declined due to population decrease. “This holds significant implications for our society today,” he said.

• This was the second time President Yoon chaired a meeting of the committee (the first was in March 2003).

• Yoon announced there would be a “Ministry of Population Strategy Planning” instead of the previously promised “Low Birth Rate Response Planning Ministry.”

• The new Population Strategy Planning Department would be endowed with pre-review authority over the budget for low birth rate countermeasures and pre-consultation rights on local government projects, functioning as a powerful “control tower.”

• Until the Population Strategy Planning Department is fully operational, Yoon stated emergency meetings to address ultra-low birth rates would be held monthly under the Presidential Committee on Aging Society and Population Policy. He also urged the National Assembly to cooperate to establish the Population Strategy Planning Department swiftly.

• On work-life balance, President Yoon announced plans to increase the current 6.8% usage rate of paternity leave to 50% during his term and to raise childcare leave pay to 2.5 million won ($1,807.96) per month for the first three months.

  He also announced plans to extend paternity leave from 10 to 20 days and raise the age limit for children eligible for reduced working hours from 8 to 12 years.

• President Yoon plans to introduce a new system for short-term childcare leave that can be taken every two weeks. He proposed providing about $860 per month as replacement labor support to employers for employees on childcare leave.

• Yoon said: “The national responsibility system for children aged 0 to 11 will be completed within this term by transitioning to public care.” He aims to implement free education and care for children aged 3 to 5 and ensure that children of all grades in elementary schools can access the after-school programs.

• Measures will also be taken to facilitate new families’ access to housing.

“Utah fertility rates still on the decline, mirroring nationwide trends” (KSL)

• Utah’s fertility rate continues to decline and seem likely to continue in the immediate future.

• “For a while, people just thought it was an effect of the Great Recession,” said Emily Harris, who authored the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute’s latest report on state fertility rates. “It’s been hard for people to reconcile the idea of declining fertility with … the dominant [Mormon] culture in Utah.”

• Utah held the title of highest fertility rates in the nation until 2016. It now fourth with 1.85 children per woman, behind South Dakota, Nebraska, and Alaska (none of which reach the replacement rate of 2.1).

• “There’s a cultural shift where people are having conversations and thinking about whether or not they want to have kids instead of just assuming they’ll have kids,” Harris said.

• The biggest fertility drops in Utah are among women who are less than 30. Women ages 40-44 are seeing an increase in fertility rates.

• Nationwide fertility rates declined for unmarried women but increased for married women from 2021 to 2022. However, more people are postponing marriage.

Fertility Beliefs and Outcomes: The Role of Relationship Status and Attractiveness (NBER)

• Unique data from the Berea Panel Study provides new evidence about fertility outcomes before age 30 and beliefs about these outcomes soon after college graduation.

• Individuals who are unmarried and not in relationships at age 24 are extremely optimistic about the probability of having children, while married individuals have very accurate beliefs.

More on population policies and trends:

• “A family-friendly pronatalism” (IFS)

• “Government can’t fix America’s baby bust: The obstacles to having more babies can’t be moved by tax incentives or subsidized child care” (Reason)

• “China’s demographics will be fine through mid-century” (Noahpinion)

Genetic Studies

“Variant level heritability estimates of type 2 diabetes in African Americans” (Scientific Reports)

• Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is caused by both genetic and environmental factors and is associated with an increased risk of cardiorenal complications and mortality.

• African Americans are disproportionately affected by the condition, African Americans but largely underrepresented in genetic studies of T2D.

• Using genome-wide association study (GWAS) data paired with phenotypic data from ~ 19,300 African Americans in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, the Genetics of Hypertension Associated Treatments (GenHAT) study, and the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) network, the authors estimated narrow-sense heritability of T2D.

• Heritability estimates adjusting for age, sex, and genetic ancestry ranged from 18% to 34%. The study narrows the expected range for T2D heritability in this race group compared to prior estimates, while providing new insight into the genetic basis of T2D.

“Ancient Neanderthal DNA may contribute to the development of autism” (PET)

• Loyola University New Orleans researchers have discovered that certain genetic variations traced back to Neanderthals are more common in people with autism.

• “In our study, we’ve found that autistic people, on average, have more rare Neanderthal variants, not that they have more Neanderthal DNA in general,” explained lead researcher Dr. Emily Casanova. “That means that while not all Neanderthal DNA is necessarily influencing autism susceptibility, a subset is.”

• Neanderthal DNA makes up 1-4% of the genome of people from outside Sub-Saharan Africa.

• The findings were published in Molecular Psychiatry.

More on genetic studies:

• “Gene essential for metastatic cancer cell growth identified” (PET)

• “The wrong genes for the job?” (PET)

• “Biosecure Act impacts genomics researchers amidst strained US-China relations” (GenomeWeb)

• “Genetic knowledge and attitudes towards genetic testing among final-year medical students at a public university in Ecuador” (Frontiers in Medicine)

Further Learning

• “The gender equality paradox and genetics” (Clear Language, Clear Mind)

• “Gene editing’s next big targets” (Axios)

• “Billionaire Jeff Bezos donates $30M to push for more lab-grown meat” (MSN)

• Many varieties of banana are at risk of extinction, gene editing may offer solutions (GLP)

• “Slight genetic tweak can increase sugarcane yield by almost 20%” (ZME Science)

• “Cana city on Mars secure life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness? People will decide for themselves?” (Larry Arnhart, Darwinian Conservatism)

Disclaimer: The Genetic Choice Project cannot fact-check the linked-to stories and studies, nor do the views expressed necessarily reflect our own.