Repronews #42: AI selects embryos for viability as well as doctors, but faster
Repronews #42: AI selects embryos for viability as well as doctors, but faster
Fernández-Villaverde on global fertility crisis; Tokyoites want kids; lay beliefs on heritability; Japan's 1948 eugenics law; wild horse genome mapped
Welcome to the latest issue of Repronews! Highlights from this week’s edition:
Repro/genetics
AI system selected same embryos as an embryologist 69% of the time, with no significant difference in clinical pregnancy rate, but 10 times faster
Population Policies & Trends
Professor Jesús Fernández-Villaverde warns in the Spectator of the global fertility crisis which is affecting most countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa
Survey: Most Tokyoites say they want marriage, kids
Genetic Studies
In a survey of 30 nations, people tended to overestimate the heritability of personality and intelligence, and underestimate the heritability of body weight and, especially, criminality
Further Learning
Japanese court declares 1948 Eugenic Protection Law unconstitutional
Researchers make first full mapping of genome of Przewalski’s horse, the last wild horse species
Repro/genetics
“AI system for embryo selection tested on IVF patients” (PET)
In a recent study, an AI system selected the same embryos as an embryologist 69% of the time, with no significant difference in clinical pregnancy rate.
Researchers from 14 clinics in Australia, Denmark, Sweden and the UK compared pregnancy rates and outcomes from embryos selected using a deep learning AI system, iDA, to those selected using standard assessment of the morphology of the embryo by an embryologist.
Though no significant differences in pregnancy rate were found, the selection of the embryos using AI was ten-times quicker than selection by embryologists.
“It seems from this that the use of a deep learning tool for embryo selection will not radically change the outcome (as it mostly chooses the same embryo) for a patient undergoing IVF,” wrote Dr. Christos Venetis, a senior research fellow at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia and one of the study authors. “However, the use of a reliable automated tool of this sort may make embryology laboratories more efficient and consistent.”
More on repro/genetics:
“Polygenic embryo screening—Patient perspectives and concerns (PET)
“Polish court allows woman to use IVF embryo after divorce” (PET)
Population Policies & Trends
“The global fertility crisis is worst than you think” (Spectator)
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania, calculates that humanity’s total fertility rate (2.18) is below the real replacement level (2.21).
Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book The Population Bomb is a cautionary tale for those trying to predict the future. Drawing on the then popular Malthusian belief that the world was doomed by high birth rates, Ehrlich predicted: “In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death.”
Ehrlich came up with drastic solutions such as adding chemicals to drinking water to sterilize the population.
People 55 or younger today are likely to witness something humans haven’t seen for 60,000 years: a sustained decrease in the world population.
According to the UN World Population Prospects, the global total fertility rate last year was 2.25—a little above the replacement rate. But UN statisticians were wrong, being bound by political constraints and lack of statistics for some countries.
For many places with reliable records, last year’s birth numbers were 10-20% lower than UN estimates. In Colombia, the UN estimate was 705,000 births. Yet its national statistical agency counted 510,000.
At present rates the human population will peak in around 30 years. Then start plummeting.
While economists have predicted that fertility would decline with economic development, the speed and extent of the fertility collapse, going beyond wealthy countries, has been faster than expected
South Korea is the most extreme case: the fertility rate last year was 0.72—roughly one-third of the replacement rate. In 2015, it was 1.24.
Turkey’s fertility rate plummeted from 3.11 in 1990 to 1.51 in 2023. The UK’s was 1.83 in 1990, 1.49 in 2022.
The situation in Latin America is striking too: Chile and Colombia had rates of 1.2 last year, Argentina and Brazil were at 1.44. Each of them had high fertility rates three decades ago.
A non-exhaustive list of countries where the rate isn’t only below replacement but falling quickly includes India, the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Bangladesh, Iran and all of Europe.
We know less about Africa because of poor quality data. The available evidence, however, suggests it’s undergoing a rapid decline, including in Egypt, Tunisia, and Kenya.
The only countries where fertility isn’t falling are in Central Asia.
Immigration is not a solution when most countries’ populations start to shrink; even supposing immigration of the scale needed would be politically palatable.
Countries from France to South Korea have introduced policies such as extended parental leaves and generous child tax credits. These have had limited success.
Fertility rates have fallen faster in large metropolitan areas than in rural areas, probably because of housing costs. Small, expensive homes deter fertility.
Societal structures have also become deeply unwelcoming to large families. Take child car seats: in the UK, children must use a child car seat until they’re 12. There’s evidence this lowers birth rates as it makes it harder to fit more than two children in a car.
Fernández-Villaverde argues for making it easier for young people to marry, safer streets to allow children to spend more time unsupervised and travel to school on their own, and organizing school holidays to not disrupt parents’ work.
He concludes: “Creating the conditions for large families to flourish is the only way to reverse the trend in fertility rates. If we fail to do so, then the coming demographic winter will be far harsher than anyone cares to admit.”
“Vast majority of young Tokyoites keen on marriage, having kids, but reality is harsh: survey” (Mainichi)
Tokyo’s total fertility rate fell below 1 per woman for the first time in 2023 to 0.99, the lowest among Japan’s 47 prefectures.
The Tokyo Chamber of Commerce and Industry conducted a online survey in April-May 2,198 people aged 18 to 34 who worked at businesses in the capital.
When asked about their attitudes toward marriage, only 9.7% of respondents said they “do not intend to get married ever.”
50.3% said they “intend to get married someday.” Combined with those who were already married (35.8%), more than 85% of all respondents had a positive attitude about marriage
42.7% of respondents said there were “no opportunities to meet people (potential partners).”
36.7% cited “financial concerns (income, employment, housing costs, student loan repayments, education expenses, etc.)” as an obstacle.
Among unmarried women, 29.5% said “increased burden of housework and child care” was a barrier. 17% cited “anxiety that marriage will interfere with career.”
More than 70% of respondents said they want multiple children, with 56.7% saying “two” and 19.7% answering “three or more.” However, when asked about the number of children they can realistically expect to have, the responses changed drastically, with 39.5% saying “two” and 4.7% answering “three or more.”
The Chamber of Commerce and Industry called on businesses to create work environments that can accommodate working parents.
Genetic Studies
“A 30-nation investigation of lay heritability beliefs” (Public Understanding of Science)
Lay beliefs about human trait heritability are consequential for cooperation and social cohesion, yet there has been no global definition of these beliefs.
In the study, participants from 30 countries (N = 6128) reported heritability beliefs for intelligence, personality, body weight, and criminality.
Globally, mean lay beliefs differ from published heritability (h2) estimated by twin studies, with a worldwide majority overestimating the heritability of personality and intelligence, and underestimating body weight and criminality.
Criminality was seen as substantially less attributable to genes than other traits.
People from countries with high infant mortality tended to ascribe greater heritability for most traits, relative to people from low infant mortality countries.
The authors argue that future research must incorporate diverse global perspectives to further contextualize and extend upon these findings.
More on genetic studies:
“Friends’ genetic traits may influence your behavior” (PET)
“New genetic causes of bowel cancer identified” (PET)
Further Learning
Supreme Court of Japan declares 1948 Eugenic Protection Law unconstitutional (Japan Times)
The Supreme Court of Japan has declared Japan’s Eugenic Protection Law, which was in force from 1948 to 1996, to be unconstitutional.
For nearly 50 years, the 1948 law facilitated forced sterilization surgeries for thousands of people with disabilities as a national policy.
The 15-justice court unanimously decided to hold the government liable for compensating the victims and rejected the application of a 20-year statute of limitations on damages claims.
“At that time, (the government) believed it was acting with good intentions, not evil intentions,” said Yasutaka Ichinokawa, a professor of sociology at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Humanities and Sociology, who is familiar with the history of eugenics. “A similar thing can happen again.”
Before the war, Japan already had a national eugenics law. Under the 1940 law, 538 people were sterilized up to the end of 1947, existing records show. These surgeries were said to have been voluntary.
By contrast, an estimated 25,000 people are believed to have been sterilized forcibly between 1948 and 1996 under the postwar eugenics law.
The small number of surgeries under the prewar law reflected opposition from conservative lawmakers, Ichinokawa said. According to one lawmaker: “Japan is a ‘family nation,’ and all Japanese share the same bloodline if we trace our history.” Another lawmaker asked: “If we lose offspring, who will pay respects to our ancestors?”
Ichinokawa argues that the collapse of the “family nation” ideology due to defeat in World War II empowered coercive eugenics.
The 1948 Eugenic Protection Act was enacted by a unanimous vote in parliament. Shidzue Katō, a Japanese feminist, one of the first female members of the Japanese parliament, and a pioneering birth control advocate, was among those who proposed the bill.
Western feminists such as Margaret Sanger and Marie Stopes had also seen advocacy of reproductive rights and eugenics as compatible or even synergetic.
The 1948 law allowed sterilization and abortion for individuals with physical or intellectual disabilities without their consent. The health ministry informed prefectural governments that physical restraint and deceptive tactics could be used as needed to perform surgeries.
About 66% of those who were sterilized under the law did not give their consent.
A relief law enacted in 2019 provides a one-time payment of ¥3.2 million (US$22,142) to each victim.
“University of Minnesota researchers map genome of the last living wild horse species” (Genes to Genome)
Researchers have successfully mapped the full genome of the endangered Przewalski’s horse.
Once extinct in the wild, thanks to conservation efforts the species now has a population of around 2,000 animals
Researchers can now use the genome as a tool to make accurate predictions about what gene mutations mean for Przewalski’s horse health and conservation.
“We were excited to partner with the University of Minnesota to preserve the genetic health of the species as their populations continue to recover, both in zoos and in the wild,” said Anne Rivas, doctor of veterinary medicine at the Minnesota Zoo. “We are thrilled to offer our community the opportunity to see the horse as the results of our conservation efforts.”
Future applications of the reference genome may include studying genes that help the horse adapt to environmental changes, identifying mutations associated with specific traits or diseases, and informing future breeding decisions to help improve upon genetic diversity. This is crucial for given the extreme population bottleneck that occurred during the near-extinction of Przewalski’s horse.
More on human nature, evolution, and biotech:
“The Human Genome Project: Inside the ‘most important biomedical research undertaking of the 20th Century’” (GLP/NIH)
“When babies are born, they cry in the accent of their mother tongue: How does language begin in the womb?” (Aeon)
Agrifood
“Beyond Meat is stalling in the U.S., Europe could be another story” (WIRED)
“UK becomes first country to greenlight cultivated meat pet food sales” (GLP)
“U.S. Defense Department backs The Better Meat Co. with $1.4 million for advanced biotech development (Vegconomist)
Disclaimer: The Genetic Choice Project cannot fact-check the linked-to stories and studies, nor do the views expressed necessarily reflect our own.